Do not predict the economic cycle, but follow the economic cycle in real-time!
I originally believed the United States recession started at the end of March.
China went into a recession, since place under lockdown by the end of January. I considered it would take 1-2 months to affect the United States.
By March 20th, social distancing was being implemented throughout the United States, so I knew for a fact the recession had to start by the end of March.
The initial jobless claims of 3.3 million people for March 22-28th released on April 2nd confirmed my suspicion that the recession started at the end of March.
The release of the United States Q1 2020 GDP on April 29th, was -4.8.
The recession did not start at the end of March but possibly in February.
If the United States did not conduct social distancing, we would have still entered a global recession due to China and other countries’ lockdown measures.
NBER did not release the 2007-2009 recession start date until a year after it started. I will release the start date of the Covid-19 recession now.
The United States entered a recession in February or March 2020, approximately 2-3 months from now!
Figure 1: A representation of where the economy is at. The United States recession has started in February or March 2020.